County of Brant Council received a report with an update on local growth trends and its associated influences during its regular Council meeting on Tuesday, October 6, 2026.
Brandon Kortleve, the County’s Manager of Policy Planning, summarized the report, explaining that population and job growth over the past five years has happened faster than originally planned, but that it’s leveling out.
“Growth remains higher than what we were forecasting at this current point in time, but the gap between actual growth and forecasted growth is getting smaller. What that means is that the very rapid period of growth that people have been well aware of over the last couple of years is leveling out,” he said. “It’s important to note that growth forecasting is a long-range tool, and actual growth moves naturally above and below the forecast any given year, and we see that. But one of the lessons that we’ve kind of learned from this analysis that’s presented in the report, is that planning for growth and experiencing that growth are two different things, and some of the impacts only become clear once neighbourhoods are built and occupied.”
Kortleve said the pressures associated with growth are “being felt across the province,” adding that the report aims to use real-world data to better coordinate infrastructure investment, community services and long-term financial planning.
The second key message of the report is that most of the development residents have seen over the past few years is currently taking place on lands that were planned for growth years, and sometimes decades, earlier.
“For context, the southwest Paris secondary plan was completed over 20 years ago, in 2004, and that plan laid out how and where the growth would happen along Rest Acres Road. If you haven’t read the plan or didn’t know it existed, then it makes sense that a lot of what we’re seeing is a bit of a surprise,” he said. “There’s a couple lessons to be learned there, namely that long-term monitoring is important to provide some context, but education and public input on these secondary planning exercises, and how that growth is to be organized, is extremely important.”
The other lesson highlighted in the report surrounds farmland conversion.
“Since the county was formed in 1999, about one per cent of the agricultural land base has been redesignated to other uses, and that includes land being brought into settlement areas for future development, as well as land that’s been temporarily used for aggregate uses,” said Kortleve. “We’re doing more work on the analysis that’s presented there, but you’ll see some of that information in the attachment and looking at some trends over decades, and what that does is help us separate out the short-term perceptions with the long-term patterns that we’re seeing to inform our decision making.”
He continued with his presentation, saying that while the County currently has enough designated land and approved development to accommodate future growth, it does not mean municipality can stop development.
“We have a large supply of housing units already planned, meaning our focus is increasingly on managing the growth, and coordinating that with the infrastructure,” he said. “We, as a municipality, are also a creature of the Province. We’re created by provincial legislation, and there are certain requirements and rules that the Province puts in place. In the planning world, one of those things is our targets with our growth targets over time.”
Something the municipality has to take into account is how it looks at development applications.
“Decisions must be made on development applications within the timelines that the Province sets out. So, one of the things that we’ve looked at is the large supply, being a result of the large amount of land that we previously designated, but also what we’ve approved developments for. And most of the land was designated more than 20 years ago,” said Kortleve. “The lesson here is that growth management needs to be more about shaping growth, not stopping it. I know that’s not the nicest pill to swallow for some, but those are really the tools that are within our toolbox, and the County’s role here is to ensure that the development is coordinated with our infrastructure while continuing to meet our provincial planning requirements for growth.”
Kortleve concluded his summary by saying that the report shows the municipality is well positioned to accommodate future growth, while emphasizing the importance of coordinating growth with infrastructure and preserving the qualities that make the County an attractive place to call home.
Following the presentation, Councillor Steve Howes thanked Kortleve and staff for putting together the report, saying growth is a hot topic amongst community members.
Howes said that one piece of information that often gets brought up by the public is population and employment targets, noting that the County’s population is targeted to reach 59,000 people by 2051.
“You’ve got charts in the report here that show we’re on track to exceed those targets, but I appreciate the context that you’ve put within this document,” he said.
Later, Councillor John Bell presented a couple of his observations.
“It looks like the housing numbers are pretty much on track and population is ahead of track, so that implies we have more people per house than we thought. What’s the implication of that?,” he asked.
Kortleve replied, saying Bell’s observation was correct and explained that the County had anticipated a gradual decline in the number of people per household over the next 30 years. He added that other municipalities are seeing the same thing, but that it does not indicate a fundamental shift in the County’s assumptions for growth.
Bell clarified that he was talking more about the impact on schooling and housing for seniors, and Kortleve said the County has been meeting with the school boards more frequently so they are up to date on the information.
Bell also asked about the report’s reference to the new planning framework laid out by the Province and how it allows for greater flexibility, asking for an example of what that meant.
“There have been two key changes that impact Brant. The growth plan is gone now, so the Province has shifted the direction for growth from urban settlements to just settlement areas. What that does is, it gets rid of the servicing hierarchy that was there before,” Kortleve responded. “The most practical example for us would be Burford. Under the previous growth plan, growth was expected to occur within the full boundary on full municipal services. We’re still in the process of evaluating the servicing solution for Burford as there’s still an ongoing EA. But this new planning framework, what it does is it provides more flexibility for us. It’ll in turn, help us accept feedback from the community about what would be an appropriate level of growth in Burford, rather than just assuming it’ll be an urbanized version of growth on full services.”
Councillor Ella Haley later expressed some of her concerns around farmland conversion as well as temporary aggregate pits. She also added that she believes that having public transit would do a better job at making the County more attractive.
Both Councillors John Peirce and David Miller also had the opportunity to discuss their thoughts around the report, touching on the importance of communicating growth numbers with the public, population targets, servicing needs and County tools farmland conversion and aggregate extraction, the housing development pipeline, as well as low to medium density homes.
Before receiving the report as information, Bell spoke once more saying that when looking at what’s coming down the pipe for Paris and St. George and how the two communities will grow, Council will need to be careful around budget time.
“We have to be really thoughtful about how we protect that rural population relative to the much, much greater urban population. When we became a County, we were 60 per cent rural and 40 per cent urban,” he said. “Right now, we’re about 50/50 in population. Play this out and it’s going to be 65/35, and it’s going to be a really different dynamic that is going to have to be managed there. So, how we put money into areas that are not in St. George and Paris is going to be a really interesting conversation in the Council as we come to every budget exercise.”
Kimberly De Jong’s reporting is funded by the Canadian government through its Local Journalism Initiative.The funding allows her to report rural and agricultural stories from Blandford-Blenheim and Brant County. Reach her at kimberly.dejong@brantbeacon.ca.
